Who is Really Winning the Poll War

Over the past three months we have seen the polls move from one candidate to another.  First Governor Romney is ahead, then President Obama, then they are statistically tied.  The polls bounce around within a few percentage points every few days, giving the news media something "BIG" to talk about.

Most of the polls seem to favor the President, which is interesting considering his low approval rating.  I could go into all the reasons that all of the polls are flawed, from location of the polls to bias in the questions themselves; but that would bore my readers- and me.

One thing that is more important than the national or even the statewide polls, is the internal polling done by each political camp.  The general public will most likely never get to see the actual numbers of this all important polling, but we can see the results.

If one side starts to look desperate, or starts to react instead of playing offensive, we can assume that their internal polling looks bad.  I would say that lately, President Obama's campaign is the camp that looks desperate.  The excessive nastiness in recent ads, the unscheduled press conference, and the grim, closed down body language of the President's surrogates indicate an underlying feeling of desperation.  It is the same reaction that we saw coming out of Newt Gingrich's failed nomination bid, and also Rick Santorum's.

Looking at the the differences in the moods of both the Governor and the Presidents' campaigns, I would say that Romney's internal polling looks better than the national polls indicate and the President's look worse.  So keep following the 1-2 percentage point movement reported by the big dogs, but don't forget to factor in the moods of the two campaigns.  If the two are not in agreement, be wary.